Shanshan will progress westward and poleward over the next 2 days as it approaches the steering ridge axis, then turn eastward toward eventual landfall in Kyushu in 3 days. During the extended forecast period, the system is expected to slowly accelerate poleward and eastward ahead of a developing mid-latitude trough.

Shanshan is still forecast to peak as a high-end Category 3-equivalen t typhoon, 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts, late Tuesday evening, while still well off shore, then weaken back to Category 1-equivalent status as it makes forecast landfall late Thursday evening just northwest of Kumamoto on Kyushu Island’s south coast.